| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | San José State | 16-14 | 1310.6 | +66.2 | 1376.8 | 20.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Pittsburgh | 17-45 | 1376.8 | -24.2 | 1352.6 | 10.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Michigan | 3-63 | 1352.6 | -98.4 | 1254.2 | 5.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Wagner | 49-10 | 1254.2 | +54.0 | 1308.2 | 88.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 24-13 | 1308.2 | +15.2 | 1323.4 | 54.8% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Akron | 22-28 | 1323.4 | -5.0 | 1318.4 | 63.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 27-6 | 1315.1 | +73.6 | 1388.7 | 23.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 38-13 | 1388.7 | +19.8 | 1408.5 | 79.9% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 21-24 | 1408.5 | +6.1 | 1414.6 | 31.7% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | W | Buffalo | 38-19 | 1411.3 | +17.7 | 1429.0 | 45.2% |
| 14 | Nov 19 2025 | W | Kent State | 28-16 | 1429.0 | +6.0 | 1435.0 | 77.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Toledo | 3-21 | 1435.0 | -13.2 | 1421.8 | 16.2% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | L | Northwestern | 7-34 | 1424.0 | -22.0 | 1402.0 | 14.8% |