| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | L | New Mexico | 7-38 | 1430.0 | -34.7 | 1395.3 | 9.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Colgate | 13-10 | 1395.3 | -16.7 | 1378.6 | 79.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Wyoming | 24-10 | 1378.6 | +29.6 | 1408.2 | 40.6% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Miami | 3-52 | 1408.2 | -11.4 | 1396.8 | 1.7% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Akron | 41-17 | 1396.8 | +45.9 | 1442.7 | 54.0% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Ohio | 14-31 | 1442.7 | -1.4 | 1441.3 | 37.1% |